Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Reveals Canadian Employers Expect Hiring Climate to Improve in the Fourth Quarter of 2009

Canadian employers expect a more optimistic hiring climate for the October to December period of 2009, according to the latest results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world.

With seasonal variations removed from the survey data, the Net Employment Outlook stands at five per cent indicating employers are forecasting a cautiously optimistic hiring environment in the fourth quarter. This forecast improves eight percentage points from the previous quarter when employers reported a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of minus three per cent. However, the Outlook declines nine percentage points from the same time last year.

The survey of more than 1,900 Canadian employers reveals that 15 per cent plan to increase their payrolls in the fourth quarter of 2009, while 11 per cent anticipate cutbacks and 73 per cent of employers expect to maintain their current staffing levels. One per cent are unsure of their hiring intentions for the upcoming quarter.

"This quarter's Net Employment Outlook indicates that the sluggish hiring pace reported in the previous quarter is likely to improve in the fourth quarter of 2009, but it's far off the pace we saw last year at this time," says Byrne Luft, VP, Marketing for Manpower Canada. "Employers are telling us that they plan to hire, but in a very conservative manner. The forecast for the Construction industry sector is noticeably stronger in the Atlantic and Western regions."

Of the 10 surveyed industry sectors, employers in both the Construction sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector report the most favourable forecasts for the October to December period of 2009 with Net Employment Outlooks of 10 per cent once seasonal variations are removed from the data. Employers in both the Mining and Public Administration sectors are also cautiously optimistic for the upcoming quarter, reporting seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlooks of nine per cent.

Construction

With a Net Employment Outlook of 10 per cent, job seekers in the Construction industry sector can expect a favourable hiring climate for the fourth quarter of 2009. This quarter's forecast is a four percentage point increase from the previous quarter. However, it is also five percentage points weaker from the same time last year when employers reported a seasonally adjusted Outlook of 15 per cent.

Finance, Insurance and Real Estate

In the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate industry sector, employers report a Net Employment Outlook of 10 per cent. This is a two percentage point increase from the previous quarter and a 10 percentage point decrease from the same time last year, indicating a slightly more hopeful hiring climate for the upcoming quarter.

Mining

Employers in the Mining industry sector are projecting a moderate hiring climate with a Net Employment Outlook of nine per cent. This is a 17 percentage point decrease from the same time last year. However, it is 11 percentage points stronger than the previous quarter.

Public Administration

With a Net Employment Outlook of nine per cent, employers in the Public Administration sector anticipate a fair hiring climate for the fourth quarter of 2009. This quarter's forecast is on par with the previous quarter, but is a 12 percentage point decline from the forecast reported at the same time last year.

Services

In the Services sector, employers report a Net Employment Outlook of seven per cent, indicating a mild hiring climate for the upcoming quarter. This is a seven percentage point improvement from the previous quarter. However, it is a nine percentage point decline from the same time last year.

Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods

Employers in the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector expect a moderate hiring climate and report a Net Employment Outlook of six per cent. This is an 18 percentage point increase from the previous quarter however the fourth quarter forecast is on par with the Outlook reported at the same time last year.

Transportation and Public Utilities

Reporting a Net Employment Outlook of five per cent, employers in the Transportation and Public Utilities sector expect a cautiously optimistic hiring climate for the upcoming quarter. This is a seven percentage point improvement from the previous quarter, but is an 11 percentage point decline from the same time last year.

Wholesale and Retail Trade

In the Wholesale and Retail Trade sector employers expect conservative hiring activity in the fourth quarter reporting a Net Employment Outlook of one per cent. This is a slight decline from the previous quarter when employers predicted a hiring climate of two per cent. It is an 11 percentage point decrease from the Outlook reported during the same time last year.

Education

With a Net Employment Outlook of one per cent, employers in the Education sector expect a quiet hiring climate for the fourth quarter of 2009. This quarter's Outlook is four percentage points weaker when compared to both the previous quarter and the same time last year.

Manufacturing Durable Goods

In the Manufacturing Durable Goods sector, employers anticipate a flat hiring climate with a Net Employment Outlook of minus one per cent. The Outlook improves 19 percentage points from the previous quarter, but is 12 percentage points weaker when compared to the same time last year.

Regional Hiring Intentions Mixed

"Regionally, employers in Western and Atlantic Canada are anticipating the most encouraging hiring environment," adds Luft. "However, the raw survey data indicates that the Outlook is weaker in three of the four Canadian regions surveyed compared to three months ago, and only employers in Western Canada are reporting stronger hiring intentions for the coming quarter. The optimistic forecast for this region is being bolstered by positive hiring intentions in the Construction, Mining, Finance, Insurance & Real Estate, and Services industry sectors." Meanwhile employers in Atlantic Canada report a fair hiring climate with Net Employment Outlook of seven per cent. With Net Employment Outlooks of three per cent and two per cent respectively, employers in Quebec and Ontario expect a mild hiring climate for the upcoming quarter.

About the Survey

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers' intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. The Survey has been running for more than 45 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with more than 72,000 public and private employers worldwide and is considered a highly respected economic indicator.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is currently available for 35 countries and territories: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Romania, Singapore, Spain, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The program began in the United States and Canada in 1962, and the United Kingdom was added in 1966. Mexico and Ireland launched the survey in 2002, and 13 additional countries were added to the program in 2003. New Zealand joined the program in 2004, China, India, Switzerland and Taiwan were added in 2005, and Argentina, Peru, Costa Rica and South Africa joined in 2006. Colombia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and Romania joined in 2008; Brazil and Hungary joined in 2009. For more information, visit the Manpower Inc. Web site at www.manpower.com and enter the Research Center.

About Manpower Canada

With over 50 offices strategically located across the country, Manpower Canada's staffing services include administrative, industrial, skilled trades and contact centre personnel as well as the assignment of contract professionals in information technology, scientific, finance, engineering, telecommunications and other professional areas under the Manpower Professional brand. More information can be found on Manpower Canada's Web sites: manpower.ca and manpowerprofessional.ca.

SOURCE: Manpower Inc.

John Settino, The iPR Group, (416) 850-2524, john@theiprgroup.ca

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